Thursday, November 8, 2007

how and where to invest forex , forex trading money

The BetOnMarkets.com site features fixed odds financial bets. You are presented with the amount of money you will win or lose prior to placing the option. If, when a option expires, you have won the option, you win a predetermined payout. This means your level of risk is clearly defined at all times making fixed odds trading a competitive and flexible way of playing the world's financial markets.
-There are a wide variety of bets available, including:

Bull/Bear - You believe that the market will be above or below (respectively) a given target at the close of the market on the date the contract expires.

Expiry Range - You believe a given market will be situated between two predetermined target levels at the close of the market on the date the contract expires.

One Touch - You believe the market will touch a given point at least once before the contract expires.

No Touch - You believe the market will never reach a certain level within a specified range of time.

Barrier Range - You believe the market will never touch two predetermined barrier levels (high and low) before the contract expires.

Double Touch - You believe the market will touch both a predetermined high and a predetermined low boundary before the contract expires.

Up or Down - You believe the market will touch either of two predetermined barrier levels (high or low) before the contract expires.

Intraday Up or Intraday Down - Buy this bet to play a market rise/fall
(respectively) between two given market times today.

Run Bets - Win the bet just in some seconds, you can win up to 10 times your money...


- The drop-down menu in the middle left hand side of the screen allows you to switch between 'Stocks', 'Indices' and 'Forex' bets.

- All times are in GMT time and bets may be sold before expiry. You can see the current value of all your bets by viewing your Portfolio. To sell a contract, simply click on the GO button on the right of the contract. Thus, you can buy and sell bets to profit from short-term trends.

Tuesday, November 6, 2007

Hedge ratio forex tips


An option price does not fluctuate in a one-to-one relationship with the fluctuations in the price of the underlying asset. This is because as the option strike price becomes closer to or further away from the current asset price, the probability of the strike price being in the money changes. In the graph above, you can see the relation of the option price to the underlying asset price. The word used to describe the relationship of the option’s price change to the underlying asset’s price change is the hedge ratio or delta. As you can see, as the option becomes more and more heavily in the money, the option value’s price will fluctuate very closely with the underlying asset price, meaning that the delta is approaching 1. But as the strike price becomes further and further out of the money, the delta approaches zero, as the probability that the option will have any intrinsic value on expiration also approaches zero.

forex is all about risks

Assuming you are dealing with a reputable broker, there are still risks to FOREX trading. Transactions are subject to unexpected rate changes, volatile markets and political events.

Any investments have the whole set of risks.

What factors define the risks? Many factors. Among them:

1) The Basic purposes of the company
2) The Organization (mechanism) of the purpose achievement
3) Management of the company, that defines its successful and long functioning
4) Presence of sufficient own company's resources for opposition various acts of God

All rest (duration of existence, the big building in the center of the town, big attractive office, the affable personnel) are not so essential. Forex market stand independently from other markets first of all because it is out of the exchange. Why so happens - probably because it formed rather recently, about 20 years ago, and banks became its participants. By virtue of development of a communication facility and automation banks began to trading "directly", not requiring in the special organizations - stock exchanges. Been born, this market became global at once, and in one country it was not possible to limit, "settle" it legislatively. Therefore there is such dislike and neglect for this market from many "classical" financiers. Nevertheless for a lot of the European and North American banks speculative operations on Forex market are the basic source of the income while the quantity of the personnel working in other markets, is constantly reduced.

So, Forex market practically has no legislative regulation in one country, and in the majority of the countries is equated to the organization of games. It follows from this that Forex market's broker does not require any licenses and certificates. It is the usual legal person.

Here is the second important fact - Forex market is not adjusted, despite of set of the confused problems and risks in addition to the risk connected with movements of the price of the market. These problems rotate around of trust, honesty of carrying out of operations, managed of Forex risks, a transparency and marketing of Forex brokers. But in the beginning we should understand, that, unlike highly adjustable exchange markets, broker firms cannot be carried to any separate stock exchange on character of problems and risks.

FOREX trading can be risky, but there are ways to limit risk and financial exposure.

Every FOREX trader needs to know at least the basics about technical analysis and how to read financial charts. He should study chart movements and indicators and understand how charts are interpreted.

Even the most knowledgeable traders, however, can't predict with absolute certainty how the market will behave. For this reason, every FOREX transaction should take advantage of available tools designed to minimize loss. Stop-loss orders are the most common ways of minimizing risk when placing an entry order. A stop-loss order contains instructions to exit your position if the currency price reaches a certain point. If you take a long position (expecting the price to rise) you would place a stop loss order below current market price. If you take a short position (expecting the price to fall) you would place a stop loss order above current market price.

As an example, if you take a short position on USD/CDN it means you expect the US dollar to fall against the Canadian dollar. The quote is USD/CDN 1.2138/43 - you can sell US$1 for 1.2138 CDN dollars or sell 1.2143 CDN dollars for US$1.

You place an order in the following way:
Sell USD: 1 standard lot USD/CDN @ 1.2138 = $121,380 CDN
Pip Value: 1 pip = $10
Stop-Loss: 1.2148
Margin: $1,000 (1%)

You are selling US$100,000 and buying CDN$121,380. Your stop loss order will be executed if the dollar goes above 1.2148, in which case you will lose $100.

However, USD/CDN falls to 1.2118/23. You can now sell $1 US for 1.2118 CDN or sell 1.2123 CDN for $1 US.

Because of the immense volume of FOREX, however, it is impossible for one force to control the market for any length of time. Market forces will prevail in the long run, making FOREX one of the most open and fair investment opportunities available.

Prices of foreign exchange are indicated by FOREX quotes in pairs of currencies. The first currency is the 'base' and the second is the 'quote' currency. In this example:

USD/EUR = 0.8419

...the currency pair is US dollars and European euros. The base currency (USD) is always at '1' and the quote currency shows how much it costs to buy one unit of the base currency. In this example, 1 US dollar costs 0.8419 euros.

Conversely...

EUR/USD = 1.1882

...tells us that it costs 1.1882 US dollars to buy 1 euro.

When the price of the quote currency goes up it indicates that the base currency is becoming stronger – one unit of the base currency will buy more of the quote currency. If the quote currency falls, however, the base currency is becoming weaker.

FOREX quotes are seen in 'bid' and 'ask' prices. Bid is the price that buyers will pay for the base currency (while selling the quote currency), and ask is the price that sellers will sell the base currency (while buying the quote currency).

Symbol Bid Ask

USD/CAD 1.2392 1.2397

This chart tells us that we can buy one American dollar for 1.2397 Canadian dollars, or sell one American dollar for 1.2392 Canadian dollars. The most commonly traded currencies pairs are the "Majors": GBP/USD, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD.

We often see exchange rates listed in cross currency charts that list many different currencies and their values against each other. An example of such a chart is seen here:
US $ Ca $ Euro UK ?
US $ 1.00000 1.24060 0.83935 0.56870
Ca $ 0.80606 1.00000 0.67657 0.45841
Euro 1.19140 1.47805 1.00000 0.67755
UK ? 1.75840 2.18147 1.47591 1.00000

In this chart, the currencies listed down the left side of the chart are the base currencies and the currencies at the top are the quote currencies. We can convert the chart above into currency pairs by following the row beside the base currency. Using US dollars as the base currency we get the following currency pairs:
USD/CAD = 1.24060
USD/EUR = 0.83935
USD/GBP = 0.56870

...which tells us that one US dollar is equal to the corresponding value of the quote currency. To find the opposite pair e.g. CAD/USD follow the Canadian dollar row to the US dollar column - CAD/USD = 0.80606 (one Canadian dollar is worth 0.80606 US dollars).

There is no standard for cross-currency charts: some have the base currency on the top and some have it on the side. How to tell which is which? You need to know at least one pair of currencies and which one of the pair is more valuable.

last part tips and tricks basics of forex

3. Indicators of the Business Cycle

Economists use three types of indicators that provide monthly data on the movement of the economy as the business cycle enters different phases: leading, coincident, and lagging indicators.

4. The business cycle's effect in Forex

As the economy moves through the different phases of the business cycle, the FOREX market reacts to these changes. Investors view these changes and take corresponding action, attempting to take advantage of changes in the economy.

In the FOREX market, the US Dollar will move inversely to interest rates. As interest rates increase, there will be a drain on earnings, resulting in a decline in the US Dollar Index.

5. Monetary Policy

Monetary policy attempts to control the supply of money and credit in the economy. This will affect interest rates causing an increase or decrease in economic activity. The primary focus of monetary policy is the control of inflation.

6. The activity of the Federal Reserve System (FRS)

The FRS implements monetary policy in the US. An Act of Congress established the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank, in 1913. The Act divided the country into 12 Federal Reserve districts. Responsibility for coordination the activities of the district banks lies with the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington D.C. The board has seven members appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate.

basics part 2 forex , uk

B. Inflation

As the cycle moves into the peak, demand for goods overtakes supply and prices rise. This creates inflation. During inflationary times, there is too much money chasing more for their items causing prices to rise. This, in turn, reduces the purchasing power of the consumer.

As prices rise, demand slackens which causes economic activity to decrease. The cycle then enters the recessionary phase.

C. Deflation

As business activity contracts, employers lay off workers and demand slackens. Usually, this cause prices to fall creating deflation. The cycle enters the trough. Deflation is the persistent and appreciable fall in the general level of prices. Eventually, lower prices will stimulate demand and the economy moves into the next cycles, expansion.

2. Gross National Product (GNP)

One of the most significant measures of economic activity is the Gross National Product (GNP). GNP is the total value of goods and services produced by the entire US economy. Components of the GNP include consumer spending, investments, government spending, and net exports.

A recession occurs when Real GNP (Gross National Product adjusted for inflation) has declined for two successive quarters.

Forex - Basics Concepts (UK)

1. The Basic Concept

The performance of an investment will be influenced by the economy. The effects of inflation or deflation may interfere with anticipated returns. Thus, the direction of the economy must be considered when formulating an investment strategy.

A. The Business Cycle

The business cycle represents changes in economic activity. It has four phases: expansion (also called recovery), peak, recession (also call contraction), and trough.

In the expansion phase, business activity is growing, production and demand are increasing, and employment is expanding. Businesses and consumers normally borrow money to expand, which causes interest rates to rise.

Uk forex charts

FX Blog- CHART Spreads in 2- and 10-yr Bonds

Note the spread chart pattern in 2's (below) dismal outlook for USD...
US-3M 4.898 2.2 -46.3
US-2Y 3.707 2.5 -111.3
US-5Y 3.990 1.7 -69.0
US-10Y 4.359 1.9 -35.1
US-30Y 4.647 1.8 -16.3

US/EZ10 0.172 2.0 -57.8

EU-3M 4.589 -0.1 85.9
GE-2Y 3.965 2.2 5.5
GE-10Y 4.187 -0.1 22.7
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